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Bury vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Bury
Bury
Canc
15:00
Lincoln
Lincoln
2/29/2020League OneLeague One · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bury59%
×Draw20%
Lincoln21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bury
2.23
Lincoln
1.25

Bury creates 78% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 156 away

creates per match

Bury
3.25
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Bury
1.25
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Bury+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bury ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bury or draw
79%
Bury or Lincoln
80%
Draw or Lincoln
41%

Winning margin

Bury wins by 2+
37%
Lincoln wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bury 1+ goals
89%
Bury 2+ goals
65%
Bury 3+ goals
38%
Lincoln 1+ goals
71%
Lincoln 2+ goals
36%
Lincoln 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bury (draw refunded)
74%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bury at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bury attack 3.25 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.23

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Bury defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bury scores more
59%
level
20%
Lincoln scores more
21%

Bury at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bury host Lincoln

February 29, 2020: Bury take on Lincoln in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.