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Bury vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Bury
Bury
Canc
11:00
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
5/3/2020League OneLeague One · Round 46

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bury62%
×Draw19%
Fleetwood Town19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bury
2.34
Fleetwood Town
1.21

Bury creates 93% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 135 away

creates per match

Bury
3.25
Fleetwood Town
1.16

allows per match

Bury
1.25
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Bury+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bury ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bury or draw
81%
Bury or Fleetwood Town
81%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
38%

Winning margin

Bury wins by 2+
40%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bury 1+ goals
90%
Bury 2+ goals
67%
Bury 3+ goals
41%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
70%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
34%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bury (draw refunded)
77%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bury at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bury attack 3.25 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.34

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Bury defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bury scores more
62%
level
19%
Fleetwood Town scores more
19%

Bury at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bury host Fleetwood Town

May 3, 2020: Bury take on Fleetwood Town in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.