Burton Albion vs Stevenage: Preview & Prediction

Burton Albion

Preview

14:00

Stevenage

8/15/2026

League One · Round 1Pirelli Stadium

Big match

50%

Burton Albion

model favours

50%26%24%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion50%

×Draw26%

Stevenage24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.98

Burton Albion

1.52

Stevenage

0.98

Burton Albion creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.28

creates per match

1.01

0.95

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Stevenage

1.77

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

76%

Burton Albion or Stevenage

74%

Draw or Stevenage

50%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

25%

Stevenage wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

78%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

45%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

20%

Stevenage 1+ goals

62%

Stevenage 2+ goals

26%

Stevenage 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

67%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Burton Albion scores more

50%

level

26%

Stevenage scores more

24%

Burton Albion at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
Burton Albion sit 17, Stevenage 6 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Burton Albion

Direct / counter-attacking

Stevenage

Direct / counter-attacking

43%Possession44%

64%Pass accuracy64%

10.1Shots10.5

1.31xGBiggest gap1.13

Burton AlbionStevenage

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2

Burton Albion

2

Draws

2

Stevenage

Avg goals: 2BTTS: 50%

0–12–21–00–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Albion

LLDDD

Stevenage

LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion face Stevenage (League One)

League One returns with Burton Albion hosting Stevenage. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Burton Albion host Stevenage at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Burton Albion vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Burton Albion face Stevenage (League One)