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Burton Albion vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
10/3/2020League OneLeague One · Round 4Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Burton Albion33%
×Draw27%
Portsmouth40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.19
Portsmouth
1.33

Portsmouth creates 12% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 134 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.31
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
60%
Burton Albion or Portsmouth
73%
Draw or Portsmouth
67%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
14%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
70%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
33%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
12%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
74%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
38%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
45%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burton Albion scores more
33%
level
27%
Portsmouth scores more
40%

Portsmouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Burton Albion 2–4 Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat Burton Albion 4-2 in League One on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire.