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Burton Albion vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
Preview
18:45
Plymouth
Plymouth
4/13/2027League OneLeague One · Round 41Pirelli Stadium
Big match
42%
Plymouth
model favours
32%25%42%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion32%
×Draw25%
Plymouth42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.25
Plymouth
1.48

Plymouth creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Burton Albion
0.95
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
58%
Burton Albion or Plymouth
75%
Draw or Plymouth
68%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
14%
Plymouth wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
71%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
36%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
13%
Plymouth 1+ goals
77%
Plymouth 2+ goals
43%
Plymouth 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
43%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burton Albion scores more
32%
level
25%
Plymouth scores more
42%

Plymouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
  • Plymouth have won 5 in a row
  • Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches
  • Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
  • Style contrast — Burton Albion play Direct / counter-attacking, Plymouth Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
Plymouth
Attack-heavy
43%Possession49%
64%Pass accuracy68%
10.2Shots13.4
1.31xGBiggest gap2.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Burton AlbionPlymouth

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Burton Albion
4
Draws
5
Plymouth
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 50%
0–30–40–12–20–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Albion
LLDDD
Plymouth
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion vs Plymouth — Match Preview

Burton Albion face Plymouth on April 13, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burton Albion host Plymouth at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.