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Burton Albion vs Notts County — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
Preview
15:00
Notts County
Notts County
2/6/2027League OneLeague One · Round 29Pirelli Stadium
38%
Burton Albion
model favours
38%27%35%

Notts County score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Burton Albion38%
×Draw27%
Notts County35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.29
Notts County
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 177 home / 18 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.29
Notts County
1.11

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.30
Notts County
1.28

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
65%
Burton Albion or Notts County
73%
Draw or Notts County
62%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
17%
Notts County wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
72%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
37%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%
Notts County 1+ goals
70%
Notts County 2+ goals
34%
Notts County 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
53%
Notts County (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Notts County defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Notts County attack 1.11 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burton Albion scores more
38%
level
27%
Notts County scores more
35%

Burton Albion at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Notts County’s matches
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Albion
LLDDD
County
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion face Notts County (League One)

League One returns with Burton Albion hosting Notts County. Match starts February 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Burton Albion host Notts County at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.