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Burton Albion vs Doncaster — League One 2025

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
Preview
14:00
Doncaster
Doncaster
4/24/2027League OneLeague One · Round 43Pirelli Stadium
Big match
45%
Burton Albion
model favours
45%27%29%

Burton Albion are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Burton Albion45%
×Draw27%
Doncaster29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.41
Doncaster
1.08

Burton Albion creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 32 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.06
Doncaster
0.84

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.33
Doncaster
1.75

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
71%
Burton Albion or Doncaster
73%
Draw or Doncaster
55%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
21%
Doncaster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
76%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
41%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
17%
Doncaster 1+ goals
66%
Doncaster 2+ goals
29%
Doncaster 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
61%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Doncaster defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Doncaster attack 0.84 + Burton Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Burton Albion scores more
45%
level
27%
Doncaster scores more
29%

Burton Albion at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.9% end 0-0
  • Doncaster fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.9 expected)
  • Burton Albion fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Burton Albion
Defensively solid
Doncaster
Defensively solid
46%Possession50%
63%Pass accuracy70%
11.3Shots12.6
1.64xGBiggest gap1.93
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Burton AlbionDoncaster

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Burton Albion
1
Draws
3
Doncaster
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–21–11–20–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Albion
DDDDW
Doncaster
WWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion vs Doncaster — Match Preview

Burton Albion face Doncaster on April 24, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burton Albion host Doncaster at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.