Burton Albion vs Doncaster — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 108+ matches
Burton Albion42%
Doncaster32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Burton Albion creates 19% more chances
Season form · 178 home / 108 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Burton Albion ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches
Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45
Doncaster attack 1.13 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Burton Albion at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Luton
Barnsley
Charlton
Portsmouth
SunderlandDoncaster
Peterborough
CoventryBurton Albion
Blackpool
Fleetwood Town
Oxford United
Gillingham
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Southend
AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
Walsall
Scunthorpe
BradfordIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Burton Albion host Doncaster on Saturday, 28 March 2020 at 15:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Burton Albion face Doncaster (League One)
League One returns with Burton Albion hosting Doncaster. Match starts March 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Burton Albion host Doncaster at Pirelli Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.