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Burton Albion vs Cambridge United — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
Preview
14:00
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
9/5/2026League OneLeague One · Round 5Pirelli Stadium
Big match
48%
Burton Albion
model favours
48%25%27%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Burton Albion48%
×Draw25%
Cambridge United27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.54
Cambridge United
1.09

Burton Albion creates 41% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 92 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.29
Cambridge United
0.89

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.30
Cambridge United
1.78

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
73%
Burton Albion or Cambridge United
75%
Draw or Cambridge United
52%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
24%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
79%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
45%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
20%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
66%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
30%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
64%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burton Albion scores more
48%
level
25%
Cambridge United scores more
27%

Burton Albion at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
Cambridge United
Direct / counter-attacking
43%Possession43%
65%Pass accuracy65%
9.9ShotsBiggest gap10.9
1.29xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Burton AlbionCambridge United

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Burton Albion
2
Draws
3
Cambridge United
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
2–10–10–02–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Albion
LLDDD
United
WWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion face Cambridge United (League One)

League One returns with Burton Albion hosting Cambridge United. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Burton Albion host Cambridge United at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.