Burton Albion vs Bradford: Preview & Prediction

Burton Albion

Preview

18:45

Bradford

10/20/2026

League One · Round 12Pirelli Stadium

Big match

43%

Burton Albion

model favours

43%28%29%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

59%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion43%

×Draw28%

Bradford29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

Burton Albion

1.29

Bradford

1.02

Burton Albion creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.28

creates per match

1.09

0.95

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Bradford

1.09

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Bradford

1.31

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Bradford-0.17scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

71%

Burton Albion or Bradford

72%

Draw or Bradford

57%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

19%

Bradford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

72%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

37%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

14%

Bradford 1+ goals

64%

Bradford 2+ goals

27%

Bradford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

59%

Bradford (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Bradford defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bradford attack 1.09 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burton Albion scores more

43%

level

28%

Bradford scores more

29%

Burton Albion at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
Style contrast — Burton Albion play Direct / counter-attacking, Bradford Defensively solid
Burton Albion sit 17, Bradford 5 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Burton Albion

Direct / counter-attacking

Bradford

Defensively solid

43%Possession50%

64%Pass accuracy66%

9.9ShotsBiggest gap12.4

1.31xG1.32

Burton AlbionBradford

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Burton Albion

1

Draws

4

Bradford

Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 60%

2–12–14–01–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Albion

LLDDD

Bradford

LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion face Bradford (League One)

League One returns with Burton Albion hosting Bradford. Match starts October 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Burton Albion host Bradford at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Burton Albion vs Bradford — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Burton Albion face Bradford (League One)