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Burton Albion vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
Preview
14:00
Barnsley
Barnsley
4/3/2027League OneLeague One · Round 39Pirelli Stadium
Big match
41%
Barnsley
model favours
34%26%41%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Burton Albion34%
×Draw26%
Barnsley41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.29
Barnsley
1.45

Barnsley creates 12% more chances

Season form · 178 home / 118 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.28
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.31
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
59%
Burton Albion or Barnsley
74%
Draw or Barnsley
66%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
15%
Barnsley wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
72%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
37%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%
Barnsley 1+ goals
77%
Barnsley 2+ goals
42%
Barnsley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
45%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.31 · 178 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Burton Albion defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Burton Albion scores more
34%
level
26%
Barnsley scores more
41%

Barnsley at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burton Albion are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Burton Albion score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.9% end 0-0
  • Burton Albion fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Burton Albion
Defensively solid
Barnsley
Balanced
45%Possession52%
63%Pass accuracy74%
10.3ShotsBiggest gap13.1
1.64xG1.48
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Burton AlbionBarnsley

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
5
Barnsley
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 60%
1–12–30–01–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Albion
DDDDW
Barnsley
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion vs Barnsley — Match Preview

Burton Albion face Barnsley on April 3, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burton Albion host Barnsley at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.