Burton Albion 3–1 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Barnsley

4/6/2019

League One · Round 41Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Burton Albion47%

×Draw25%

Barnsley28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.19

Burton Albion

1.62

Barnsley

1.19

Burton Albion creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

1.53

0.85

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.57

Barnsley

1.53

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.85

Barnsley

1.67

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Burton Albion-0.37scores less

Barnsley+0.30scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

72%

Burton Albion or Barnsley

75%

Draw or Barnsley

53%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

25%

Barnsley wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

80%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

48%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

22%

Barnsley 1+ goals

70%

Barnsley 2+ goals

33%

Barnsley 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

63%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.85 · 5 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.57 + Barnsley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Barnsley attack 1.53 + Burton Albion defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Burton Albion scores more

47%

level

25%

Barnsley scores more

28%

Burton Albion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff