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Burreli vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Burreli
Burreli
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
11/23/20191st Division1st Division · Round 9Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Burreli51%
×Draw31%
Tërbuni Pukë18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burreli
1.18
Tërbuni Pukë
0.56

Burreli creates 111% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 39 away

creates per match

Burreli
1.13
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Burreli
0.61
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Burreli or draw
82%
Burreli or Tërbuni Pukë
69%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
49%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+
23%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals
69%
Burreli 2+ goals
33%
Burreli 3+ goals
12%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
43%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
11%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)
74%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Burreli scores more
51%
level
31%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
18%

Burreli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burreli vs Tërbuni Pukë

Burreli beat Tërbuni Pukë 1-0 in 1st Division on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Liri Ballabani in Burreli.