Burreli 0–0 FK Kukesi: Result & Stats

Burreli

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Kukesi

11/3/2024

1st Division · Round 11Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Burreli56%

×Draw27%

FK Kukesi17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurreliExpected goals in this matchFK Kukesi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.64

Burreli

1.44

FK Kukesi

0.64

Burreli creates 125% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 35 away

1.13

creates per match

0.66

0.61

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Burreli

1.13

FK Kukesi

0.66

allows per match

Burreli

0.61

FK Kukesi

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par

FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

FK Kukesi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burreli or draw

83%

Burreli or FK Kukesi

73%

Draw or FK Kukesi

44%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+

29%

FK Kukesi wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals

76%

Burreli 2+ goals

42%

Burreli 3+ goals

18%

FK Kukesi 1+ goals

47%

FK Kukesi 2+ goals

14%

FK Kukesi 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)

77%

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.74 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + FK Kukesi defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

FK Kukesi attack 0.66 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Burreli scores more

56%

level

27%

FK Kukesi scores more

17%

Burreli at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Burreli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff