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Burnley vs Derby — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
14:00
Derby
Derby
9/19/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Turf Moor
Big match
64%
Burnley
model favours
64%21%15%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Burnley64%
×Draw21%
Derby15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.97
Derby
0.83

Burnley creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

creates per match

Burnley
2.38
Derby
1.28

allows per match

Burnley
0.38
Derby
1.56

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
85%
Burnley or Derby
79%
Draw or Derby
36%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
39%
Derby wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
86%
Burnley 2+ goals
58%
Burnley 3+ goals
31%
Derby 1+ goals
56%
Derby 2+ goals
20%
Derby 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
81%
Derby (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Derby away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 2.38 + Derby defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Derby attack 1.28 + Burnley defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Burnley scores more
64%
level
21%
Derby scores more
15%

Burnley at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Burnley host Derby

September 19, 2026: Burnley take on Derby in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Burnley host Derby at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.