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Burnley vs Brentford — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Brentford
Brentford
M. Cornet 36'
M. Lowton 32'
C. Wood 4'
S. Ghoddos 79'
10/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley31%
×Draw25%
Brentford44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.26
Brentford
1.55

Brentford creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Burnley
0.96
Brentford
1.17

allows per match

Burnley
1.94
Brentford
1.56

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par
Brentford-0.07on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
56%
Burnley or Brentford
75%
Draw or Brentford
69%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
13%
Brentford wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
72%
Burnley 2+ goals
36%
Burnley 3+ goals
13%
Brentford 1+ goals
79%
Brentford 2+ goals
46%
Brentford 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
41%
Brentford (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.56 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Brentford defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.26

Brentford attack 1.17 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burnley scores more
31%
level
25%
Brentford scores more
44%

Brentford at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
M. LowtonBurnleyBurnley · D
8.2

Match Events

4'
C. Wood
17'
Maxwel CornetGoal cancelled
32'
M. Lowton↳ C. Taylor
36'
M. Cornet↳ D. McNeil
58'
S. Ghoddos← F. Onyeka
68'
M. Vydra← M. Cornet
68'
V. Janelt← M. Jensen
72'
Saman Ghoddos
77'
M. Rasmussen← Sergi Canós
79'
S. Ghoddos↳ C. Nørgaard
83'
Dwight McNeil

Possession

41%Burnley

Shots

15Burnley

Pass accuracy

48%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyBrentford
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots12
4Corners2
7Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots12
6On Target5
9Off Target3
0Blocked4
9Inside Box6
6Outside Box6
Passing
41%Possession59%
356Total Passes521
245Accurate Passes398
69%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Burnley vs Brentford

Burnley beat Brentford 3-1 in Premier League on October 30, 2021.

Goals: C. Wood (4'), M. Lowton (32'), M. Cornet (36'), S. Ghoddos (79').

Brentford controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.