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Burnley vs Bolton — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
15:00
Bolton
Bolton
3/20/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39Turf Moor
72%
Burnley
model favours
72%18%10%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Burnley72%
×Draw18%
Bolton10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
2.25
Bolton
0.71

Burnley creates 217% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Burnley
2.11
Bolton
1.00

allows per match

Burnley
0.42
Bolton
2.40

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Bolton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
90%
Burnley or Bolton
82%
Draw or Bolton
28%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
48%
Bolton wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
89%
Burnley 2+ goals
65%
Burnley 3+ goals
39%
Bolton 1+ goals
51%
Bolton 2+ goals
16%
Bolton 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
88%
Bolton (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.42 · 19 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 2.11 + Bolton defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bolton attack 1.00 + Burnley defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Burnley scores more
72%
level
18%
Bolton scores more
10%

Burnley at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley and Bolton have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
Bolton
WWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Burnley host Bolton

March 20, 2027: Burnley take on Bolton in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Burnley host Bolton at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.