Burnley 3–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.50

Burnley

1.29

Aston Villa

1.50

Aston Villa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

1.87

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Aston Villa

1.58

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

58%

Burnley or Aston Villa

75%

Draw or Aston Villa

67%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

14%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

72%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

78%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

44%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

44%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.58 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Aston Villa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more

33%

level

25%

Aston Villa scores more

42%

Aston Villa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Pope

Burnley · G

8.0

Match Events

14'

O. Watkins↳ M. Targett

22'

James Tarkowski

46'

J. Cork← J. Brownhill

52'

B. Mee↳ A. Westwood

60'

J. Guðmundsson← R. Brady

68'

J. Grealish↳ Douglas Luiz

75'

M. Vydra← J. Rodriguez

76'

D. McNeil↳ E. Pieters

79'

C. Wood↳ D. McNeil

83'

Trézéguet← B. Traoré

83'

A. El Ghazi← R. Barkley

88'

K. Davis← Douglas Luiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyAston

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots18

2Corners4

16Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots18

5On Target10

3Off Target5

2Blocked3

5Inside Box14

5Outside Box4

Passing

38%Possession62%

290Total Passes475

170Accurate Passes369

59%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

8Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2