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Burnley vs Aston Villa — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
1/1/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley33%
×Draw25%
Aston Villa41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.32
Aston Villa
1.50

Aston Villa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 32 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.00
Aston Villa
1.14

allows per match

Burnley
1.87
Aston Villa
1.64

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more
Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Aston Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
59%
Burnley or Aston Villa
75%
Draw or Aston Villa
67%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
15%
Aston Villa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
73%
Burnley 2+ goals
38%
Burnley 3+ goals
15%
Aston Villa 1+ goals
78%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
44%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
45%
Aston Villa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Burnley scores more
33%
level
25%
Aston Villa scores more
41%

Aston Villa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Burnley 1–2 Aston Villa

Aston Villa beat Burnley 2-1 in Premier League on January 1, 2020.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.