Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Burladés vs Murchante — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Burladés
Burladés
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Murchante
Murchante
11/23/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 14Estadio Ripagaina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Burladés39%
×Draw26%
Murchante35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burladés
1.38
Murchante
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 41 away

creates per match

Burladés
1.34
Murchante
1.05

allows per match

Burladés
1.54
Murchante
1.41

finishing

Burladés+0.00on par
Murchante+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burladés ↓

Murchante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Burladés or draw
65%
Burladés or Murchante
74%
Draw or Murchante
61%

Winning margin

Burladés wins by 2+
18%
Murchante wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Burladés 1+ goals
75%
Burladés 2+ goals
40%
Burladés 3+ goals
16%
Murchante 1+ goals
72%
Murchante 2+ goals
37%
Murchante 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Burladés (draw refunded)
53%
Murchante (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burladés at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 91 matches

Murchante away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burladés attack 1.34 + Murchante defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Murchante attack 1.05 + Burladés defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burladés scores more
39%
level
26%
Murchante scores more
35%

Burladés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burladés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Burladés 2–1 Murchante

Burladés beat Murchante 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ripagaina in Burlada.