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Burladés vs Beti Kozkor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Burladés
Burladés
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
9/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 4Estadio Ripagaina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Burladés41%
×Draw26%
Beti Kozkor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burladés
1.45
Beti Kozkor
1.27

Burladés creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

creates per match

Burladés
1.34
Beti Kozkor
1.00

allows per match

Burladés
1.54
Beti Kozkor
1.55

finishing

Burladés+0.00on par
Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burladés ↓

Beti Kozkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Burladés or draw
67%
Burladés or Beti Kozkor
74%
Draw or Beti Kozkor
59%

Winning margin

Burladés wins by 2+
20%
Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Burladés 1+ goals
77%
Burladés 2+ goals
42%
Burladés 3+ goals
18%
Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
72%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
36%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Burladés (draw refunded)
56%
Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burladés at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 91 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burladés attack 1.34 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Burladés defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Burladés scores more
41%
level
26%
Beti Kozkor scores more
33%

Burladés at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Burladés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Burladés 1–2 Beti Kozkor

Beti Kozkor beat Burladés 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ripagaina in Burlada.