Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Burladés vs Ardoi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Burladés
Burladés
CANC
00:00
Ardoi
Ardoi
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 34Estadio Ripagaina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Burladés34%
×Draw26%
Ardoi40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burladés
1.24
Ardoi
1.38

Ardoi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

creates per match

Burladés
1.34
Ardoi
1.22

allows per match

Burladés
1.54
Ardoi
1.14

finishing

Burladés+0.00on par
Ardoi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burladés ↓

Ardoi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Burladés or draw
60%
Burladés or Ardoi
74%
Draw or Ardoi
66%

Winning margin

Burladés wins by 2+
14%
Ardoi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Burladés 1+ goals
71%
Burladés 2+ goals
35%
Burladés 3+ goals
13%
Ardoi 1+ goals
75%
Ardoi 2+ goals
40%
Ardoi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Burladés (draw refunded)
46%
Ardoi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burladés at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 91 matches

Ardoi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.14 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burladés attack 1.34 + Ardoi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ardoi attack 1.22 + Burladés defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burladés scores more
34%
level
26%
Ardoi scores more
40%

Ardoi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ardoi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burladés vs Ardoi — Match Preview

Burladés face Ardoi on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burladés host Ardoi at Estadio Ripagaina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.