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Bunyodkor vs Olympic — Super League 2026

Bunyodkor
Bunyodkor
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Olympic
Olympic
4/30/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Bunyodkor42%
×Draw26%
Olympic32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bunyodkor
1.46
Olympic
1.23

Bunyodkor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bunyodkor
1.46
Olympic
1.18

allows per match

Bunyodkor
1.28
Olympic
1.46

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw
68%
Bunyodkor or Olympic
74%
Draw or Olympic
58%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+
20%
Olympic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals
77%
Bunyodkor 2+ goals
43%
Bunyodkor 3+ goals
18%
Olympic 1+ goals
71%
Olympic 2+ goals
35%
Olympic 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)
57%
Olympic (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.28 · 100 matches

Olympic away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.46 + Olympic defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

Olympic attack 1.18 + Bunyodkor defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bunyodkor scores more
42%
level
26%
Olympic scores more
32%

Bunyodkor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bunyodkor vs Olympic

Olympic beat Bunyodkor 5-1 in Super League on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.