Bunyodkor 1–1 Olmaliq: Result & Stats

Bunyodkor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Olmaliq

S. Izzatov 90+3'

S. Haghnazari 62'

8/6/2023

Super League · Round 15Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Bunyodkor37%

×Draw27%

Olmaliq36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Bunyodkor

1.27

Olmaliq

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 99 away

1.45

creates per match

1.17

1.33

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Olmaliq

1.17

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Olmaliq

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

64%

Bunyodkor or Olmaliq

73%

Draw or Olmaliq

63%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

16%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

72%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

36%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

14%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

71%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

36%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

51%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Olmaliq defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Olmaliq attack 1.17 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

37%

level

27%

Olmaliq scores more

36%

Bunyodkor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Utkirov← U. Sultonov

46'

S. Izzatov← A. Ulmasaliev

56'

R. Yuldashev← M. Marčić

62'

S. Haghnazari

78'

B. Tupliyev← A. Nosko

80'

M. Kosimov← S. Haghnazari

80'

M. Mirakhmadov← M. Boakye

80'

V. Denisov← Rubén Sánchez

82'

O. Rustamov← S. Tursunov

90+2'

M. Hasanov← S. Gadoev

90+3'

S. Izzatov

Bunyodkor

Olmaliq

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Krestinin

46'▲F. Utkirov←▼U. Sultonov

46'▲S. Izzatov←▼A. Ulmasaliev

56'▲R. Yuldashev←▼M. Marčić

78'▲B. Tupliyev←▼A. Nosko

Bunyodkor substitutes

UtkirovIzzatovYuldashevTupliyevAnvarovIsmatullaevN.AhmadjonovKarimovTaira

Manager: M. Kasimov

80'▲M. Kosimov←▼S. Haghnazari

80'▲M. Mirakhmadov←▼M. Boakye

80'▲V. Denisov←▼Rubén Sánchez

82'▲O. Rustamov←▼S. Tursunov

90+2'▲M. Hasanov←▼S. Gadoev

Olmaliq substitutes

KosimovMirakhmadovDenisovRustamovHasanovKomilovYoqubovTukhtakhujaevRahimov