Bunyodkor 2–3 Olmaliq: Result & Stats

Bunyodkor

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Olmaliq

K. Giyosov 57' (pen)

N. Tukhtasinov 35'

J. Umarov 88'

E. Grigalashvili 48'

M. Vatsadze 15'

9/22/2020

Super League · Round 16Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Bunyodkor37%

×Draw27%

Olmaliq36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Bunyodkor

1.27

Olmaliq

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 99 away

1.45

creates per match

1.17

1.33

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Olmaliq

1.17

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Olmaliq

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

64%

Bunyodkor or Olmaliq

73%

Draw or Olmaliq

63%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

16%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

72%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

36%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

14%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

71%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

36%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

51%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Olmaliq defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Olmaliq attack 1.17 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

37%

level

27%

Olmaliq scores more

36%

Bunyodkor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

21'

35'

48'

57'

K. GiyosovPenalty

63'

J. Umarov← H. Gafurov

63'

S. Nurmatov← M. Vatsadze

63'

A. Amanow← S. Tursunov

69'

M. Sulaymonov

70'

F. Ikramov← K. Giyosov

71'

A. Shorakhmedov← M. Suleymanov

72'

R. Yuldashev

78'

D. Axmadaliev← U. Abdullayev

78'

V. Nuriev← S. Erkinov

84'

Z. Polvonov← B. Abdurakhimov

85'

I. Ibragimov← R. Yuldashev

87'

S. Kodirkulov

88'

J. Umarov

Bunyodkor

Olmaliq

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Giyosov

Manager: V. Abramov

70'▲F. Ikramov←▼K. Giyosov

78'▲D. Axmadaliev←▼U. Abdullayev

78'▲V. Nuriev←▼S. Erkinov

85'▲I. Ibragimov←▼R. Yuldashev

Bunyodkor substitutes

IkramovAxmadalievNurievIbragimovGafurovErgashevKakhramonovKarimovAkopov

Manager: M. Qosimov

63'▲J. Umarov←▼H. Gafurov

63'▲S. Nurmatov←▼M. Vatsadze

63'▲A. Amanow←▼S. Tursunov

71'▲A. Shorakhmedov←▼M. Suleymanov

84'▲Z. Polvonov←▼B. Abdurakhimov

Olmaliq substitutes

UmarovNurmatovAmanowShorakhmedovPolvonovKosimovZiyovutdinovRakhmanovAbdunabiyev