Bunyodkor 2–1 Neftchi: Result & Stats

Bunyodkor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Neftchi

U. Sultonov 90+6'

J. Khakimov 54'

Z. Dzhuraboev 58'

10/28/2023

Super League · Round 23Stadion Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Bunyodkor32%

×Draw27%

Neftchi41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.32

Bunyodkor

1.12

Neftchi

1.32

Neftchi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 61 away

1.45

creates per match

1.31

1.33

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Neftchi

1.31

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Neftchi

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Neftchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

59%

Bunyodkor or Neftchi

73%

Draw or Neftchi

68%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

13%

Neftchi wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

67%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

31%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

10%

Neftchi 1+ goals

73%

Neftchi 2+ goals

38%

Neftchi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

43%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.12

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

32%

level

27%

Neftchi scores more

41%

Neftchi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

20'

27'

32'

45+4'

M. Makhamadzhonov

46'

B. Tupliyev← A. Ulmasaliev

46'

A. Gulomov← F. Musaev

47'

U. Adkhamzoda

54'

J. Khakimov

58'

Z. Dzhuraboev

62'

S. Abdurakhmonov

62'

U. Khoshimov← G. Nikabadze

75'

L. To‘rayev← M. Gofurov

77'

F. Utkirov← M. Makhamadjonov

77'

U. Ismonaliyev← I. Ivanović

78'

J. Khakimov

81'

U. Ismonaliev

81'

S. Abdurakhmonov

81'

S. Abdurakhmonov

85'

U. Sultonov← R. Yuldashev

90+6'

U. Sultonov

Bunyodkor

Neftchi

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Krestinin

46'▲B. Tupliyev←▼A. Ulmasaliev

77'▲F. Utkirov←▼M. Makhamadjonov

77'▲U. Ismonaliyev←▼I. Ivanović

85'▲U. Sultonov←▼R. Yuldashev

Bunyodkor substitutes

TupliyevUtkirovIsmonaliyevSultonovTo'raqulovIkramovErkinovSultanovTo'khtasinov

Manager: V. Ezhurov

46'▲A. Gulomov←▼F. Musaev

62'▲U. Khoshimov←▼G. Nikabadze

75'▲L. To‘rayev←▼M. Gofurov

Neftchi substitutes

GulomovKhoshimovTo‘rayevTuraevArabuliAbdullaevNematkhonovAbdullajonovMrčela

Super League: Bunyodkor 2–1 Neftchi

Bunyodkor beat Neftchi 2-1 in Super League on October 28, 2023.

Goals: J. Khakimov (54'), Z. Dzhuraboev (58'), U. Sultonov (90+6').

The match was played at Stadion Majmuasi in Tashkent.

Bunyodkor vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Bunyodkor 2–1 Neftchi