Bunyodkor 1–1 Nasaf: Result & Stats | Super League

Bunyodkor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nasaf

A. Nosko 90+7'

G. G'aybullaev 40'

4/17/2023

Super League · Round 6Milliy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Bunyodkor33%

×Draw27%

Nasaf40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BunyodkorExpected goals in this matchNasaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.32

Bunyodkor

1.17

Nasaf

1.32

Nasaf creates 13% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 95 away

1.45

creates per match

1.31

1.33

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Bunyodkor

1.45

Nasaf

1.31

allows per match

Bunyodkor

1.33

Nasaf

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Nasaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bunyodkor ↓

Nasaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bunyodkor or draw

60%

Bunyodkor or Nasaf

73%

Draw or Nasaf

67%

Winning margin

Bunyodkor wins by 2+

14%

Nasaf wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bunyodkor 1+ goals

69%

Bunyodkor 2+ goals

33%

Bunyodkor 3+ goals

11%

Nasaf 1+ goals

73%

Nasaf 2+ goals

38%

Nasaf 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bunyodkor (draw refunded)

45%

Nasaf (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bunyodkor at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 92 matches

Nasaf away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.88 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bunyodkor attack 1.45 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nasaf attack 1.31 + Bunyodkor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bunyodkor scores more

33%

level

27%

Nasaf scores more

40%

Nasaf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

18'

31'

31'

40'

46'

R. Yuldashev← V. Sotnikov

57'

D. Ergashev

62'

A. Amonov← B. Abdurahimov

67'

F. Utkirov← J. Khakimov

71'

U. Eshmuradov

80'

M. Olimjonov← A. Ismatullaev

87'

A. Anvarov← D. Abdumannopov

87'

S. Komilov← J. Mannonov

87'

S. Muhammadiyev← Mateus Lima

90+5'

S. Nurulloyev← O. Bozorov

90+7'

A. Nosko

Bunyodkor

Nasaf

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Atadjanov

46'▲R. Yuldashev←▼V. Sotnikov

67'▲F. Utkirov←▼J. Khakimov

80'▲M. Olimjonov←▼A. Ismatullaev

87'▲A. Anvarov←▼D. Abdumannopov

Bunyodkor substitutes

YuldashevUtkirovOlimjonovAnvarovTo'raqulovYoqubovFozilovKakhramonovKarimov

Manager: R. Berdyev

62'▲A. Amonov←▼B. Abdurahimov

87'▲S. Komilov←▼J. Mannonov

87'▲S. Muhammadiyev←▼Mateus Lima

90+5'▲S. Nurulloyev←▼O. Bozorov

Nasaf substitutes

AmonovKomilovMuhammadiyevNurulloyevSoyibovTurdialievRahimovSadullayevErgashev

Super League: Bunyodkor 1–1 Nasaf

Bunyodkor and Nasaf drew 1-1 in Super League on April 17, 2023.

Goals: G. G'aybullaev (40'), A. Nosko (90+7').

The match was played at Milliy Stadion in Tashkent.

Bunyodkor vs Nasaf — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Bunyodkor 1–1 Nasaf