Bullense 2–3 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

Bullense

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Real Murcia II

1/19/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Bullense34%

×Draw27%

Real Murcia II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BullenseExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.29

Bullense

1.17

Real Murcia II

1.29

Real Murcia II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 111 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.35

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Bullense

1.18

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

Bullense

1.35

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bullense or draw

61%

Bullense or Real Murcia II

73%

Draw or Real Murcia II

66%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+

14%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals

69%

Bullense 2+ goals

33%

Bullense 3+ goals

11%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

72%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

37%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)

46%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bullense scores more

34%

level

27%

Real Murcia II scores more

39%

Real Murcia II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bullense 2–3 Real Murcia II

Real Murcia II beat Bullense 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas in Bullas.

Bullense vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bullense 2–3 Real Murcia II