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BUL vs KCCA — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KCCA
KCCA
9/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2FUFA Technical Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

BUL40%
×Draw29%
KCCA31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
1.18
KCCA
1.01

BUL creates 17% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
KCCA
1.20

allows per match

BUL
0.83
KCCA
0.93

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
KCCA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

KCCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

BUL or draw
69%
BUL or KCCA
71%
Draw or KCCA
60%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
17%
KCCA wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
69%
BUL 2+ goals
33%
BUL 3+ goals
12%
KCCA 1+ goals
64%
KCCA 2+ goals
27%
KCCA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
56%
KCCA (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

KCCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + KCCA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.18

KCCA attack 1.20 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BUL scores more
40%
level
29%
KCCA scores more
31%

BUL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BUL 1–0 KCCA

BUL beat KCCA 1-0 in Premier League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at FUFA Technical Centre in Njeru.