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Budućnost Popovac vs Timok Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
FT
2 – 1
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
10/25/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Budućnost Popovac52%
×Draw24%
Timok Zaječar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budućnost Popovac
1.70
Timok Zaječar
1.06

Budućnost Popovac creates 60% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 64 away

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.84
Timok Zaječar
1.06

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac
1.07
Timok Zaječar
1.55

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw
76%
Budućnost Popovac or Timok Zaječar
76%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
48%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
28%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
82%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
51%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
24%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
65%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
29%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
69%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more
52%
level
24%
Timok Zaječar scores more
24%

Budućnost Popovac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Budućnost Popovac 2–1 Timok Zaječar

Budućnost Popovac beat Timok Zaječar 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Begavica in Popovac.