Buducnost Podgorica 3–0 Zeta: Result & Stats | Cup

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zeta

V. Terzić 86'

L. Mijović 79'

D. Božović 33' (pen)

5/5/2021

Cup · Semi-finalsStadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica79%

×Draw14%

Zeta7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchZeta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.59

0.65

Buducnost Podgorica

2.59

Zeta

0.65

Buducnost Podgorica creates 298% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.86

creates per match

1.00

0.29

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

2.86

Zeta

1.00

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.29

Zeta

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Zeta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Zeta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

93%

Buducnost Podgorica or Zeta

86%

Draw or Zeta

21%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

57%

Zeta wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

92%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

73%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

47%

Zeta 1+ goals

48%

Zeta 2+ goals

14%

Zeta 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

92%

Zeta (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Zeta away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 2.86 + Zeta defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.59

Zeta attack 1.00 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

79%

level

14%

Zeta scores more

7%

Buducnost Podgorica at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Z. Ceklic

33'

D. BožovićPenalty

59'

V. Kalezic

61'

A. Raznatovic

64'

A. Tuzović← Mijat Lambulić

64'

P. Orlandić← L. Lambulić

77'

V. Terzić← V. Đukanović

77'

I. Ivanović← M. Raičković

79'

A. Milic

79'

L. Mijović

84'

Matija Lambulić← M. Burzanović

86'

V. Terzić

89'

Pavlicic D.

Buducnost

Zeta

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Milinković

77'▲V. Terzić←▼V. Đukanović

77'▲I. Ivanović←▼M. Raičković

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

TerzićIvanović

Manager: R. Dostanić

64'▲A. Tuzović←▼Mijat Lambulić

64'▲P. Orlandić←▼L. Lambulić

84'▲Matija Lambulić←▼M. Burzanović

Zeta substitutes

TuzovićOrlandićLambulić

Cup: Buducnost Podgorica 3–0 Zeta

Buducnost Podgorica beat Zeta 3-0 in Cup on May 5, 2021.

Goals: D. Božović (33' pen), L. Mijović (79'), V. Terzić (86').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.

Buducnost Podgorica vs Zeta — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Cup: Buducnost Podgorica 3–0 Zeta