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Buducnost Podgorica vs FK Mladost Podgorica — First League 2019

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FK Mladost Podgorica
FK Mladost Podgorica
11/23/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica56%
×Draw24%
FK Mladost Podgorica20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Podgorica
1.67
FK Mladost Podgorica
0.88

Buducnost Podgorica creates 90% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 34 away

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica
1.95
FK Mladost Podgorica
0.82

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica
0.93
FK Mladost Podgorica
1.38

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par
FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

FK Mladost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw
80%
Buducnost Podgorica or FK Mladost Podgorica
76%
Draw or FK Mladost Podgorica
44%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
31%
FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
81%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
50%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
23%
FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals
59%
FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals
22%
FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
74%
FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

FK Mladost Podgorica away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.82 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more
56%
level
24%
FK Mladost Podgorica scores more
20%

Buducnost Podgorica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buducnost Podgorica vs FK Mladost Podgorica

Buducnost Podgorica beat FK Mladost Podgorica 2-1 in First League on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.