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Buducnost Podgorica vs Dečić — First League 2019

Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dečić
Dečić
8/7/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 3Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica47%
×Draw27%
Dečić26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buducnost Podgorica
1.44
Dečić
1.01

Buducnost Podgorica creates 43% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 108 away

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica
1.95
Dečić
1.08

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica
0.93
Dečić
0.93

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par
Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Dečić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw
74%
Buducnost Podgorica or Dečić
73%
Draw or Dečić
53%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
23%
Dečić wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
76%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
42%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
18%
Dečić 1+ goals
64%
Dečić 2+ goals
27%
Dečić 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
64%
Dečić (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Dečić away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.93 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + Dečić defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dečić attack 1.08 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more
47%
level
27%
Dečić scores more
26%

Buducnost Podgorica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buducnost Podgorica vs Dečić

Dečić beat Buducnost Podgorica 2-0 in First League on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.