Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Budoni vs Città di Anagni — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Budoni
Budoni
PST
13:00
Città di Anagni
Città di Anagni
4/5/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 30Stadio Comunale San Teodoro (San Teodoro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Budoni37%
×Draw26%
Città di Anagni37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budoni
1.35
Città di Anagni
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 13 away

creates per match

Budoni
0.94
Città di Anagni
1.31

allows per match

Budoni
1.38
Città di Anagni
1.77

finishing

Budoni+0.00on par
Città di Anagni+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budoni ↓

Città di Anagni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Budoni or draw
63%
Budoni or Città di Anagni
74%
Draw or Città di Anagni
63%

Winning margin

Budoni wins by 2+
17%
Città di Anagni wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Budoni 1+ goals
74%
Budoni 2+ goals
39%
Budoni 3+ goals
15%
Città di Anagni 1+ goals
74%
Città di Anagni 2+ goals
39%
Città di Anagni 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Budoni (draw refunded)
50%
Città di Anagni (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budoni at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 47 matches

Città di Anagni away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budoni attack 0.94 + Città di Anagni defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.35

Città di Anagni attack 1.31 + Budoni defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Budoni scores more
37%
level
26%
Città di Anagni scores more
37%

Budoni at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Budoni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Budoni vs Città di Anagni — Match Preview

Budoni face Città di Anagni on April 5, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone G fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Budoni host Città di Anagni at Stadio Comunale San Teodoro (San Teodoro).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.