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Budissa Bautzen vs Einheit Wernigerode — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
11/4/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12Stadion Müllerwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Budissa Bautzen55%
×Draw21%
Einheit Wernigerode24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budissa Bautzen
2.16
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

Budissa Bautzen creates 55% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 77 away

creates per match

Budissa Bautzen
2.10
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

allows per match

Budissa Bautzen
1.39
Einheit Wernigerode
2.21

finishing

Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par
Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budissa Bautzen ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Budissa Bautzen or draw
76%
Budissa Bautzen or Einheit Wernigerode
79%
Draw or Einheit Wernigerode
45%

Winning margin

Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
33%
Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
88%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
63%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
36%
Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
75%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
40%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
69%
Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budissa Bautzen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 77 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budissa Bautzen attack 2.10 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.16

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Budissa Bautzen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Budissa Bautzen scores more
55%
level
21%
Einheit Wernigerode scores more
24%

Budissa Bautzen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Budissa Bautzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Budissa Bautzen 4–1 Einheit Wernigerode

Budissa Bautzen beat Einheit Wernigerode 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Müllerwiese in Bautzen.