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Budaörs vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Budaörs
Budaörs
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
9/4/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 7Árok utcai pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Budaörs51%
×Draw22%
Gyirmót II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budaörs
1.96
Gyirmót II
1.39

Budaörs creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Budaörs
1.74
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

Budaörs
1.16
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

Budaörs+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budaörs ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Budaörs or draw
73%
Budaörs or Gyirmót II
78%
Draw or Gyirmót II
49%

Winning margin

Budaörs wins by 2+
29%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Budaörs 1+ goals
86%
Budaörs 2+ goals
58%
Budaörs 3+ goals
31%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
75%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
40%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Budaörs (draw refunded)
65%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budaörs at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budaörs attack 1.74 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.96

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + Budaörs defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Budaörs scores more
51%
level
22%
Gyirmót II scores more
27%

Budaörs at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Budaörs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Budaörs 1–1 Gyirmót II

Budaörs and Gyirmót II drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Árok utcai pálya in Budaörs.