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Budaiya vs East Riffa — Premier League 2019

Budaiya
Budaiya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
East Riffa
East Riffa
12/8/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Budaiya24%
×Draw27%
East Riffa50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budaiya
0.91
East Riffa
1.46

East Riffa creates 60% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 61 away

creates per match

Budaiya
0.74
East Riffa
1.10

allows per match

Budaiya
1.81
East Riffa
1.07

finishing

Budaiya+0.00on par
East Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budaiya ↓

East Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Budaiya or draw
50%
Budaiya or East Riffa
73%
Draw or East Riffa
76%

Winning margin

Budaiya wins by 2+
8%
East Riffa wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Budaiya 1+ goals
60%
Budaiya 2+ goals
23%
Budaiya 3+ goals
6%
East Riffa 1+ goals
77%
East Riffa 2+ goals
43%
East Riffa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Budaiya (draw refunded)
32%
East Riffa (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budaiya at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

East Riffa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budaiya attack 0.74 + East Riffa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.91

East Riffa attack 1.10 + Budaiya defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Budaiya scores more
24%
level
27%
East Riffa scores more
50%

East Riffa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "East Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Budaiya 0–1 East Riffa

East Riffa beat Budaiya 1-0 in Premier League on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.