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Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC — Primera A 2018

Bucaramanga
Bucaramanga
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
11/10/2024Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 18Estadio Américo Montanini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Bucaramanga44%
×Draw28%
Fortaleza FC28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bucaramanga
1.29
Fortaleza FC
0.97

Bucaramanga creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bucaramanga
1.20
Fortaleza FC
1.13

allows per match

Bucaramanga
0.82
Fortaleza FC
1.38

finishing

Bucaramanga-0.20scores less
Fortaleza FC+0.07on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucaramanga ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bucaramanga or draw
72%
Bucaramanga or Fortaleza FC
72%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
56%

Winning margin

Bucaramanga wins by 2+
20%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bucaramanga 1+ goals
72%
Bucaramanga 2+ goals
37%
Bucaramanga 3+ goals
14%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
62%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
25%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bucaramanga (draw refunded)
61%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 9 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucaramanga attack 1.20 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fortaleza FC attack 1.13 + Bucaramanga defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bucaramanga scores more
44%
level
28%
Fortaleza FC scores more
28%

Bucaramanga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC

Bucaramanga beat Fortaleza FC 1-0 in Primera A on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Américo Montanini in Bucaramanga.