Bucaramanga vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Bucaramanga42%
Alianza Valledupar27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bucaramanga creates 35% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No63
- Yes37
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bucaramanga ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bucaramanga at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 7 matches
Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.04 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bucaramanga attack 1.15 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09
Alianza Valledupar attack 0.68 + Bucaramanga defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Bucaramanga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Bucaramanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Atletico Nacional
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
Huila
Junior
Deportivo Cali
Patriotas
Once Caldas
Millonarios
Envigado
Santa Fe
JaguaresBucaramanga
America De Cali
Deportivo Pasto
Chico
Leones FCDeportes TolimaOnce CaldasBucaramangaIndependiente MedellinJuniorSanta FeAtletico NacionalDeportivo CaliMillonariosAmerica De CaliEnvigadoChicoPatriotasHuilaDeportivo PastoJaguaresLeones FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Bucaramanga host Alianza Valledupar on Tuesday, 18 February 2025 at 21:00. The match is part of the Primera A 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Bucaramanga vs Alianza Valledupar
Bucaramanga and Alianza Valledupar drew 0-0 in Primera A on February 18, 2025.
Bucaramanga controlled possession (74%) and registered 15 shots to 3.
The match was played at Estadio Alvaro Gomez Hurtado in Floridablanca.