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BSC Young Boys vs Servette FC — Super League 2018

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Servette FC
Servette FC
8/14/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

BSC Young Boys45%
×Draw24%
Servette FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
1.65
Servette FC
1.32

BSC Young Boys creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
1.78
Servette FC
1.51

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
1.13
Servette FC
1.52

finishing

BSC Young Boys-0.49scores less
Servette FC+0.02on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Servette FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
69%
BSC Young Boys or Servette FC
76%
Draw or Servette FC
55%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
23%
Servette FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
81%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
49%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
23%
Servette FC 1+ goals
73%
Servette FC 2+ goals
38%
Servette FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
60%
Servette FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.78 + Servette FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Servette FC attack 1.51 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
45%
level
24%
Servette FC scores more
31%

BSC Young Boys at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSC Young Boys vs Servette FC

BSC Young Boys beat Servette FC 3-0 in Super League on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.