BSC Young Boys 2–0 Servette FC: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Servette FC

J. Nsame 41'

S. Rouiller 4' (OG)

2/21/2021

Super League · Round 21Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

BSC Young Boys43%

×Draw24%

Servette FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchServette FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.37

BSC Young Boys

1.61

Servette FC

1.37

BSC Young Boys creates 18% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

1.77

creates per match

1.63

1.11

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.77

Servette FC

1.63

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.11

Servette FC

1.46

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.04on par

Servette FC+0.04on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Servette FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

67%

BSC Young Boys or Servette FC

76%

Draw or Servette FC

57%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

22%

Servette FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

80%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

48%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

22%

Servette FC 1+ goals

75%

Servette FC 2+ goals

40%

Servette FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

57%

Servette FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.11 · 16 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.46 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.77 + Servette FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Servette FC attack 1.63 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

43%

level

24%

Servette FC scores more

33%

BSC Young Boys at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Q. Maceiras

BSC Young Boys · D

7.9

Match Events

4'

S. RouillerOwn goal

12'

Fabian Lustenberger

41'

J. Nsame↳ Q. Maceiras

46'

A. Schalk← B. Cespedes

46'

A. Mendy← A. Sauthier

50'

Gaël Clichy

59'

S. Lauper← M. Aebischer

59'

G. Gaudino← C. Fassnacht

59'

C. Zesiger← F. Lustenberger

61'

Felix MambimbiGoal cancelled

62'

Mohamed Camara

72'

K. Koné← G. Kyei

72'

G. Ondoua← T. Valls

75'

Felix MambimbiGoal cancelled

81'

M. Spielmann← M. Sulejmani

82'

M. Elia← F. Mambimbi

90'

Mohamed Camara

90'

Mohamed Camara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCServette

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots9

10Corners6

9Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots9

1On Target1

8Off Target4

3Blocked4

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

371Total Passes450

277Accurate Passes351

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3