BSC Young Boys 3–2 Lausanne: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lausanne

C. Fassnacht 82'

F. Rieder 76'

S. Hefti 13'

S. Kukuruzović 80' (pen)

Z. Amdouni 32'

10/23/2021

Super League · Round 11Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

BSC Young Boys44%

×Draw24%

Lausanne31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchLausanne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.33

BSC Young Boys

1.62

Lausanne

1.33

BSC Young Boys creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.76

creates per match

1.56

1.10

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.76

Lausanne

1.56

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.10

Lausanne

1.48

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

BSC Young Boys-0.26scores less

Lausanne+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Lausanne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

69%

BSC Young Boys or Lausanne

76%

Draw or Lausanne

56%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

23%

Lausanne wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

80%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

48%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

22%

Lausanne 1+ goals

74%

Lausanne 2+ goals

38%

Lausanne 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

58%

Lausanne (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.76 + Lausanne defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lausanne attack 1.56 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

44%

level

24%

Lausanne scores more

31%

BSC Young Boys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Fassnacht

BSC Young Boys · M

7.3

Match Events

13'

S. Hefti

32'

Z. Amdouni↳ Cameron Puertas

33'

Armel Zohouri

35'

Anel Husic

46'

M. Elia← M. Sulejmani

46'

W. Kanga← J. Siebatcheu

66'

Cameron Puertas Castro

73'

F. Rieder← M. Aebischer

73'

M. Ngamaleu← F. Mambimbi

74'

B. Ouattara← H. Mahou

76'

F. Rieder

80'

Fabian Rieder

80'

S. KukuruzovićPenalty

81'

T. Suzuki← T. Coyle

82'

C. Fassnacht

88'

G. Barès← S. Kukuruzović

88'

M. George← A. Husic

90'

Nicolas Ngamaleu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCLausanne

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots10

4Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots10

8On Target5

6Off Target5

2Blocked0

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

457Total Passes374

378Accurate Passes277

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2