BSC Young Boys 4–2 Lausanne: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 0

Lausanne

J. Nsame 33', 24' (pen), 11'

C. Fassnacht 19'

B. Ouattara 78'

P. Flo 59'

2/7/2021

Super League · Round 19Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

BSC Young Boys44%

×Draw24%

Lausanne32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchLausanne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.39

BSC Young Boys

1.65

Lausanne

1.39

BSC Young Boys creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.77

creates per match

1.67

1.11

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.77

Lausanne

1.67

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.11

Lausanne

1.53

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.04on par

Lausanne+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

Lausanne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

68%

BSC Young Boys or Lausanne

76%

Draw or Lausanne

56%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

22%

Lausanne wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

81%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

49%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

23%

Lausanne 1+ goals

75%

Lausanne 2+ goals

40%

Lausanne 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

57%

Lausanne (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.11 · 16 matches

Lausanne away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.77 + Lausanne defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lausanne attack 1.67 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

44%

level

24%

Lausanne scores more

32%

BSC Young Boys at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

J. Nsame

BSC Young Boys · F

9.5

Match Events

11'

J. Nsame↳ M. Aebischer

19'

C. Fassnacht↳ J. Lefort

24'

J. NsamePenalty

33'

J. Nsame↳ S. Lauper

40'

M. Jenz← G. Bares

41'

B. Ouattara← Pedro Brazão

41'

L. Da Cunha← T. Suzuki

46'

G. Gaudino← M. Aebischer

46'

M. Ngamaleu← C. Fassnacht

59'

P. Flo↳ C. Puertas

63'

C. Zesiger← J. Lefort

64'

U. Garcia← F. Lustenberger

69'

H. Mahou← N. Boranijašević

71'

T. Siebatcheu← M. Sulejmani

75'

T. Zai← S. Kukuruzović

78'

B. Ouattara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCLausanne

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots9

5Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots9

6On Target4

5Off Target3

1Blocked2

10Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

403Total Passes348

327Accurate Passes275

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Offsides1