BSC Young Boys 3–2 FC Sion: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

FC Sion

C. Fassnacht 56'

J. Nsamé 22'

M. Aebischer 12'

B. Ndoye 49'

R. Uldriķis 8'

9/28/2019

Super League · Round 9STADE DE SUISSE Wankdorf Bern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

BSC Young Boys39%

×Draw25%

FC Sion36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchFC Sion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.37

BSC Young Boys

1.43

FC Sion

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

1.77

creates per match

1.62

1.11

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.77

FC Sion

1.62

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.11

FC Sion

1.09

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.04on par

FC Sion+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Sion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

64%

BSC Young Boys or FC Sion

75%

Draw or FC Sion

61%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

18%

FC Sion wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

76%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

42%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

17%

FC Sion 1+ goals

75%

FC Sion 2+ goals

40%

FC Sion 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

52%

FC Sion (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.11 · 16 matches

FC Sion away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.09 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.77 + FC Sion defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.43

FC Sion attack 1.62 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

39%

level

25%

FC Sion scores more

36%

BSC Young Boys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Aebischer

BSC Young Boys · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

R. Uldriķis↳ M. Facchinetti

12'

M. Aebischer↳ G. Gaudino

22'

J. Nsamé↳ M. Aebischer

29'

J. Ruiz← X. Kouassi

49'

B. Ndoye↳ E. Lenjani

56'

C. Fassnacht↳ J. Nsamé

71'

J. Lotomba← G. Hoarau

74'

76'

77'

83'

84'

86'

88'

90+3'

N. Bürgy← C. Fassnacht

90'

F. Mambimbi← G. Gaudino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCFC

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots12

6Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots12

7On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked5

7Inside Box7

8Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

384Total Passes446

290Accurate Passes327

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1