Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BSC Young Boys vs FC Lugano — Super League 2018

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
Preview
16:00
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
1/16/2027Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Stadion Wankdorf
Big match
57%
BSC Young Boys
model favours
57%22%22%

FC Lugano are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

BSC Young Boys57%
×Draw22%
FC Lugano22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
2.00
FC Lugano
1.16

BSC Young Boys creates 72% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
2.56
FC Lugano
1.39

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
0.92
FC Lugano
1.43

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
78%
BSC Young Boys or FC Lugano
78%
Draw or FC Lugano
43%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
34%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
86%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
59%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
32%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
69%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
32%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
72%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.92 · 147 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.43 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.56 + FC Lugano defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Lugano attack 1.39 + BSC Young Boys defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
57%
level
22%
FC Lugano scores more
22%

BSC Young Boys at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Lugano have scored in 11 games running
  • BSC Young Boys score first in only 30% of matches
  • 65% of BSC Young Boys’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — BSC Young Boys play Possession-dominant, FC Lugano Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
BSC Young Boys
Possession-dominant
FC Lugano
Defensively solid
58%Possession59%
80%Pass accuracy85%
15.3Shots14.5
1.44xGBiggest gap1.55
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BSC Young BoysFC Lugano

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
BSC Young Boys
3
Draws
4
FC Lugano
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
0–11–10–33–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Boys
WWDDW
Lugano
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: BSC Young Boys host FC Lugano

January 16, 2027: BSC Young Boys take on FC Lugano in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

BSC Young Boys host FC Lugano at Stadion Wankdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.