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BSC Young Boys vs FC Lugano — Super League 2018

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
9/24/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

BSC Young Boys57%
×Draw22%
FC Lugano22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
2.00
FC Lugano
1.16

BSC Young Boys creates 72% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
2.56
FC Lugano
1.39

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
0.92
FC Lugano
1.43

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
78%
BSC Young Boys or FC Lugano
78%
Draw or FC Lugano
43%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
34%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
86%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
59%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
32%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
69%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
32%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
72%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.92 · 147 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.43 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.56 + FC Lugano defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Lugano attack 1.39 + BSC Young Boys defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
57%
level
22%
FC Lugano scores more
22%

BSC Young Boys at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: BSC Young Boys 4–1 FC Lugano

BSC Young Boys beat FC Lugano 4-1 in Super League on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.