BSC Young Boys 3–1 FC Lugano: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Lugano

W. Kanga 87', 81'

J. Siebatcheu 63' (pen)

S. Lovrić 27'

12/1/2021

Super League · Round 4Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

BSC Young Boys52%

×Draw24%

FC Lugano24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchFC Lugano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.06

BSC Young Boys

1.69

FC Lugano

1.06

BSC Young Boys creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.77

creates per match

1.01

1.11

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

1.77

FC Lugano

1.01

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.11

FC Lugano

1.60

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.04on par

FC Lugano-0.01on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Lugano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

76%

BSC Young Boys or FC Lugano

76%

Draw or FC Lugano

48%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

28%

FC Lugano wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

82%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

50%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

24%

FC Lugano 1+ goals

65%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

29%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

69%

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.11 · 16 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.77 + FC Lugano defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Lugano attack 1.01 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

52%

level

24%

FC Lugano scores more

24%

BSC Young Boys at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

W. Kanga

BSC Young Boys · F

8.5

Match Events

-5'

27'

45+1'

45+1'

58'

58'

58'

Q. Maceiras← S. Hefti

61'

Vincent SierroPenalty awarded

61'

M. Facchinetti← S. Guidotti

63'

Jonathan Sabbatini

63'

J. SiebatcheuPenalty

72'

M. Amoura← M. Bottani

80'

M. Camara← F. Lustenberger

80'

M. Sulejmani← F. Mambimbi

81'

Yuri← O. Custodio

81'

C. Lungoyi← Ž. Celar

81'

W. Kanga↳ M. Sulejmani

87'

W. Kanga↳ M. Sulejmani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCFC

Overview

66%Possession34%

22Total Shots11

7Corners4

16Fouls18

Shots

22Total Shots11

9On Target3

6Off Target6

7Blocked2

12Inside Box5

10Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

524Total Passes266

441Accurate Passes183

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls18

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3