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BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 — Super League 2018

BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
10/30/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Stadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

BSC Young Boys45%
×Draw24%
FC Basel 189330%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Young Boys
1.63
FC Basel 1893
1.29

BSC Young Boys creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

BSC Young Boys
1.78
FC Basel 1893
1.46

allows per match

BSC Young Boys
1.13
FC Basel 1893
1.47

finishing

BSC Young Boys-0.49scores less
FC Basel 1893-0.06on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

FC Basel 1893 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw
70%
BSC Young Boys or FC Basel 1893
76%
Draw or FC Basel 1893
55%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
23%
FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
80%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
48%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
22%
FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
72%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
37%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
60%
FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 7 matches

FC Basel 1893 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.47 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 1.78 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.63

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.46 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more
45%
level
24%
FC Basel 1893 scores more
30%

BSC Young Boys at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893

BSC Young Boys beat FC Basel 1893 3-1 in Super League on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.