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Bryne vs Stabaek — 1. Division 2026

Bryne
Bryne
Preview
18:00
Stabaek
Stabaek
9/12/20261. Division1. Division · Round 22Bryne Stadion
Big match
42%
Bryne
model favours
42%24%35%

Stabaek score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bryne42%
×Draw24%
Stabaek35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bryne
1.63
Stabaek
1.47

Bryne creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

creates per match

Bryne
1.59
Stabaek
1.81

allows per match

Bryne
1.13
Stabaek
1.66

finishing

Bryne+0.00on par
Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Stabaek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bryne or draw
65%
Bryne or Stabaek
76%
Draw or Stabaek
58%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+
21%
Stabaek wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals
80%
Bryne 2+ goals
48%
Bryne 3+ goals
22%
Stabaek 1+ goals
77%
Stabaek 2+ goals
43%
Stabaek 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)
55%
Stabaek (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.59 + Stabaek defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Stabaek attack 1.81 + Bryne defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bryne scores more
42%
level
24%
Stabaek scores more
35%

Bryne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 65% of Stabaek’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Bryne win just 30% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bryne
DLWWW
Stabaek
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bryne face Stabaek (1. Division)

1. Division returns with Bryne hosting Stabaek. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bryne host Stabaek at Bryne Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.