Bryne 3–3 Sogndal: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Bryne

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Sogndal

M. Diaw 86'

S. Grønli 59' (pen)

A. Gunnes 19'

A. Díaz 45+3' (pen)

I. Twum 41'

J. Jónsson 30'

9/11/2022

1. Division · Round 24Bryne Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bryne45%

×Draw25%

Sogndal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BryneExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.23

Bryne

1.58

Sogndal

1.23

Bryne creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 114 away

1.59

creates per match

1.33

1.13

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Bryne

1.59

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

Bryne

1.13

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bryne+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bryne or draw

70%

Bryne or Sogndal

75%

Draw or Sogndal

55%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+

23%

Sogndal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals

79%

Bryne 2+ goals

47%

Bryne 3+ goals

21%

Sogndal 1+ goals

71%

Sogndal 2+ goals

35%

Sogndal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)

60%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.59 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Bryne defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bryne scores more

45%

level

25%

Sogndal scores more

30%

Bryne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

20'

30'

30'

41'

43'

45+4'

O. K. Knappen

45+3'

A. DíazPenalty

46'

M. Diaw← A. Gunnes

54'

E. Flataker← V. Ingimundarson

59'

U. Mathisen

59'

U. Mathisen

59'

S. GrønliPenalty

61'

M. Diaw

65'

K. Steinset← J. Jónsson

66'

E. Grønner← A. Díaz

71'

R. Baldvinsson← A. Kryger

72'

J. Voilås← B. Langeland

86'

M. Diaw

Bryne

Sogndal

35

13

5

26

22

7

⚽

▼

Jónsson

20

⚽

Twum

8

▼

Ingimunda

11

Hoven

19

Mathisen

99

⚽

▼

12

45

15

26

▼

Kryger

20

Norheim

6

Romslo

11

▼

Langeland

16

Dybevik

10

Undheim

17

⚽

Grønli

9

⚽

▼

Gunnes

Manager: K. Knappen

46'▲M. Diaw←▼A. Gunnes

71'▲R. Baldvinsson←▼A. Kryger

72'▲J. Voilås←▼B. Langeland

Bryne substitutes

8Diaw5Baldvinsson18Voilås3Aamodt7Aasen22Mattingsdal24Husebø99Spiridonov32Jonassen

Manager: T. Flo

54'▲E. Flataker←▼V. Ingimundarson

65'▲K. Steinset←▼J. Jónsson

66'▲E. Grønner←▼A. Díaz

Sogndal substitutes

30Flataker29Steinset28Grønner9Kupen16Lereng21Johnsen

1. Division: Bryne 3–3 Sogndal

Bryne and Sogndal drew 3-3 in 1. Division on September 11, 2022.

Goals: A. Gunnes (19'), J. Jónsson (30'), I. Twum (41'), A. Díaz (45+3' pen), S. Grønli (59' pen), M. Diaw (86').

The match was played at Bryne Stadion in Bryne.

Bryne vs Sogndal — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Bryne 3–3 Sogndal